Quantitative risk assessment: methodology and application in an automaker body-in-white production line project
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15675/gepros.3028Palavras-chave:
Automaker, Body-in-white, Monte Carlo Simulation, Probabilistic modeling, Quantitative risk assessmentResumo
Purpose: this research aims to introduce a novel methodology, termed Quantitative Risk Assessment for body-in-white projects, to forecast the expected project completion time and total project cost. This methodology is demonstrated through application to a real project within an automotive manufacturer in Brazil.
Theoretical framework: the study employs established risk analysis methods (e.g., program evaluation and review technique, preliminary hazard analysis, Gaussian curve, Monte Carlo simulation) alongside project management tools for problem characterization (e.g., project requirements, assumptions, work breakdown structure).
Methodology/Approach: the methodology presented in this paper follows a sequence of methods that: (i) identify the hazards; (ii) evaluate the probability of risks associated with each project task; (iii) assess their consequences and impact on project costs; and, finally, (iv) quantify the risks to predict a probability spectrum for the project’s total cost. This allows estimating an emergency reserve and categorizing the risk level to inform stakeholders.
Findings: The paper reveals that, among the 66 identified hazards, there is a 37% probability of the project duration exceeding 200 days, and the project has been categorized as high risk (i.e., more than a 20% probability that additional costs will exceed 20% of the estimated project budget).
Research, practical & social implications: this study enables organizations to forecast the potential impacts of risks on project schedules and costs through comprehensive risk assessments, providing valuable input for project risk management.
Originality/ Value: the study’s value lies in the originality of its risk assessment methodology applied to automakers’ body-in-white projects.
Keywords: Automaker. Body-in-White. Monte Carlo Simulation. Probabilistic modeling. Quantitative risk assessment.
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